As we approach the end of the year, we thought it would be fun to ask our Research Fellows to share what they believe to be the most important new communications developments in 2006 and their predictions for what will happen in 2007. Here’s what they had to say. Enjoy! And please share your thoughts as well!
From Dean Kruckeberg:
I expect the increasing popularity of YouTube and its social ramifications are most significant.
The most significant developments in 2006 were:
- The use of YouTube and MySpace as part of marketing and political campaigns
- Google’s decision to archive news, putting it in direct competition with Factiva and Nexis
- “Dell Hell,” which brought blogs to the attention of board rooms everywhere
In 2007:
- Blog “impression” numbers will finally be available
- Blog monitoring/analysis/measurement will show up on to-do lists everywhere
- Wal-Mart will once again be outed for doing something dumb in the blogosphere
- Every single presidential hopeful will announce his/her blog
I believe virtual currency may be the next big thing. We are seeing more and more examples of this (Second Life = linden, Microsoft = points). But we ain’t seen nothing yet. But watch — someone will brand this “Money 2.0” (oy).
Voice will be better incorporated into communities. It’s about time.
There will be an emergence of social media tools that help people educate, not just communicate. Why? Current tools are rather limited, and the highest form of communication is education. Prediction: we are going to learn a lot more about a platform called Moodle.
Google’s purchase of YouTube was the most significant acquisition of 2006. It revealed that Google thought there was more value in buying YouTube’s brand than trying to compete with YouTube via Google Video.
Second Life will grow in importance; its integration with the real world will develop. Unlike blogging and other social media tools, Second Life is not intuitive, or easy to use for most people. We are already seeing a growing number of Second Life blogs and podcasts. These sites intersect with the real world and search engines. Two things will happen:
1. Second Life will become easier for people to use, and
2. there will be more integration into the real world and searchable content on search engines for Second Life. If Second Life does not achieve this, other 3D environments will leapfrog the environment. However, Second Life’s leadership position will be tough to assail because the community wants it to succeed.
Social media communications and product managers will begin to realize just what they have on their hands, and via partnering, API’s plugins and widgets, social media websites will seek to become ever more part of people’s Internet experiences.
We’re unhooking from our computers and will be getting much more online info via our cell phones, PDAs, etc. Beware the marketer who doesn’t remember this and doesn’t format blog posts, etc. to be read on a cell phone or Treo!
The corporate blogosphere has gone multi-media. If you’re not including podcasts, embedded video and cool images with your blog, then you’re soooo 2005.
This has been the year when RSS came into its own. The release of IE 7 with the reader built into the browser has finally made it really simple. Jupiter Research found that 30% of large companies are deploying RSS due to customer demand.
2007 will see an explosion of web content syndication with RSS and the sharing of content on social media sites. Already one in twenty web visits is to one of the top social media sites according to HitWise. And, these sites are driving traffic to search engines and verticals like travel and telecom.
Corporate communications professionals and PR agencies will have to wrap their wits around online PR and social media.
In November, 2005, Forbes published a cover story called Attack of the Blogs that portrayed bloggers as an unruly mob of vindictive troublemakers. In the year since, the blogosphere has been enriched by the addition of prominent voices from academia, literature, entertainment, media, politics and many other spheres of interest. Contrary to the dire forecast in Forbes, the blogosphere has actually become a more civilized, intellectually vibrant and creative place in the last 12 months. It is a remarkable evolution and a very heartening message about the ability of people to regulate themselves and do the right thing.
In terms of predictions for the coming year, I think we will begin to see the rapid deterioration of the daily newspaper business model under the assault from consumer-generated media. I believe this is an alarming trend that will ultimately lead to the death of some prominent newspapers, but the losers will be replaced by a more diverse and flexible form of new media that fully leverages Web 2.0 technologies and the voices of individuals.
In 2006, the ambiguity of the term “Web 2.0” morphed into pure buzzword-hype.
- Vendors and the media watered-down the concept of “2.0” by augmenting the label to market sectors, e.g., Content Management 2.0, Knowledge Management 2.0, Web Site Management 2.0 and Systems Management 2.0. “Community” is the cornerstone of Web 2.0. Yet, indiscriminately using “2.0” for market messaging reduces the inherent power of “community.”
- Start-ups abounded. See GoToWeb20.net to track the groundswell.
Those in external and internal communication fields (e.g., PR, marketing, advertising) continued to be early adopters of blogs for their viral effect. Except for “cutting edge” enterprises, the majority of enterprises approached corporate blogging cautiously.
Kathy Sierra designed a complementary management style appropriately named Manager 2.0." The concept of horizontal management is not new. However in 2007 and beyond, enterprises will start to realize that the full benefits of Web 2.0 technologies can not be realized without alignment to participatory relationship building.
Unlike dot.com, the 2.0 bubble will not burst. Rather, 2007 will bring an onslaught of consolidations and acquisitions as start-ups need to become profitable.
In 2007, “cost of doing business” realities will be applied to social communities. Particularly in the U.S., enterprises in the financial services and healthcare industries will keep a tight rein on sanctioned and unsanctioned use of social community technologies by employees to remain in compliance with privacy regulations such as Graham Leach-Bliley and HIPAA.
… and with tongue firmly planted in cheek (for the most part)…
The number of blogs will drop for the first time in 2007, as more people realize that there is nothing really new to view.
The number of lawyers employed by YouTube crosses over the number of actual videos posted on the site, as copyright suits continue to increase.
Google’s stock crosses 750.
Microsoft releases the Vista source code, finally tossing in the DoJ towel, revealing that it was all based on a previously unknown Unix port. Apple quickly demonstrates a version of Vista running on its latest iBooks. Novell becomes a wholly-owned subsidiary of Microsoft.
Linden dollars become the official currency of several eastern European nations. The rationale? They might as well base their economies on something more stable that most of their citizens actual have lots of.
As everyone becomes reachable via IM, email networks fall upon disuse and spammers go into developing and selling Second Life and World of Warcraft malware.
From all of us at the Society for New Communications Research, we wish you a happy holiday season, and a wonderful and exciting new year!
