NewCommentary
By Chris Heuer, Social Media Club
I was recently asked to to think about the future of social media for a conference I was speaking at. Hmmm… sure, let me just get out the crystal ball and Merlin’s favorite dish rag to polish it so I can answer that question right away. While I am at it, I will predict the next big stock market winner and President. In all honesty, one of the great things about social media is that no one really knows what the next big thing is. It truly is like trying to capture lightning in a bottle. Still, since this is the sort of thing some folks pay me to do, I will let you in on a few of the trends that are worthy of the question.
There are four major trends I see from where I sit today:
Social Media will become more of a business, but will retain the power from its personal passion, unlike new media in the big dotcom boom
More individuals will band together in networks small and large, changing the very notion of freelancing and employment
The corporation will be forever changed, traditional media will adapt before dying completely and all companies will become media companies thereby shrinking the advertising pie
Ultimately, Social Media will be a primary catalyst in saving the world…or bringing about our demise
1 – The Business of Social Media
If you think that Social Media, as represented by blogging, podcasting and vlogging, is only a personal or social pursuit with no room for making money or corporate involvement, you are clearly still living in 2002.
I was talking with Jason Hoffman of Joyent over a few pints in London about the early days of Text Pattern and how Dean Allen originally turned his personal passion into a real business. It is a perfect example of why things are different today than before, but it is also clearly about business in the age of personal power and open, participatory networks. Dean could not have found a better partner than Jason. He is clearly one of the smartest people I have ever met in the Valley, and I have met quite a few people in my 5 years living there. I can’t do the entire story justice here (Chris Lott did), but the interesting part I want to share is the story of the VC200 – which was the 200 people who answered Dean’s call for pre-paying for a year’s worth of hosting at $199 each, giving the company enough money to get up and running without having to sell their soul to the venture capitalists.
Of course, Dean did what any smart, value minded business person would do – he took care of his customer/investors and promised them all free hosting for life if the business was successful (and a free t-shirt). That $40,000 was the beginning of a company that I personally think will be worth hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. This is a story about the power of an individual who gets it, and the power of many individual’s who join together in trusted networks for their collective benefit. This is the power of social media, and it is the power of business done right.
The problem generally is that business is often thought of as a four-letter word for many people, because so many assholes have done it wrong, for their own personal, selfish, greedy, and power hungry reasons that are not in harmony with the world around us. When the people who run a business are able to act like human beings, using the good values they hold in their hearts and minds rather than the socialization of greed we have inherited from prior generations, great things can be accomplished and everyone can be the better for it.
Even if you don’t agree with my perspective on the business of social media, I am sure you will agree that it puts the power of the press/satellite/antenna in the hands of everyone with access to the Internet. The democratization of media and the means of production (represented by increasing access and decreasing costs) also removes the barriers to entry into the media business. In 1999 I invested all of my life savings, and some of my grandfather’s to launch InfoApps.com, which was primarily an Internet media property akin to Engadget or Gizmodo. It was just a bit before its time and cost tens of thousands of dollars in development expenses. Today I could launch that same site on WordPress for $20 per month with half the effort and 1/100th of the initial setup time.
Today anyone with talent and creativity can build a media property out of sheer personal interest or for personal profit. Per Joe Krause’s statement in Business 2.0 last November, it is surely easier in many regards to launch, but no easier to develop it into a business. For every Chris Pirillo, Jake Luddington, Dooce, or Daily Koz, there are tens of thousands of others who toil away in relative obscurity away from the glaring spotlight of cultural popularity. If they are doing it only for the limelight, then surely these â€?unpopular failuresâ€? would quit – but they aren’t doing it for that reason alone, they are doing it because they enjoy it, because it builds their reputation, because they have an opinion, an idea or a cause that is worth doing for their own personal satisfaction or for any one of another personal million or more reasons.
Over the last year, I made about $11.46 on AdSense via my blog, but some of the folks I know make in excess of $250,000 per year working less than 30 hours per week. This is not some get rich scheme, it is the power of networked media when combined with free thinking, some business sense, a great work ethic and a passion for something that is shared by others. Sure I would like to make more money doing what I love, but I am doing what I love and doing what I need to do in order to spend more time working on my passions. I am also studying, gaining insights and seeking collaborators. As you might tell from the length of this article/post, I am also seeking an editor…
Further to my point, social media is a playground for emerging talent and we will certainly see more and more �stars� coming from amongst our Social Media peers in the years to come. AdSense and text ads are not enough to make most people wealthy, though some are making a living from it while others are creating mini-media-empires. As with professional sports though, there will only be so many �one-percenters� at the top of their game. Many excel at creatively but lack the business sense required to build an audience. Those who are smart enough to realize this will either join networks like Federated Media, find the right business partners like Chris/Ponzi/Jake, join a company like Robert Scoble did with Podtech or sell their content in Social Media marketplaces such as Social Roots. [disclosure: I am an advisor to Social Roots]
If nothing else I say is true social media represents a training and experimentation opportunity from which amateurs, hobbyists, creative doodlers and diary keepers will emerge as professional producers of professional media. Or they will simply tuck that skill set in their virtual hats and use it within their selected careers as needed from time to time. Predicting what actually happens is impossible. As Neo says in the Matrix, “the problem is choice.� Or more accurately, the brilliant part is free will, and that is what makes it so exciting and impossible to control.
I do fervently believe that this is the era of the producer. Talent that joins together with the right producers will excel, while those who stubbornly think that they can be the proverbial �one man band� and do it all may have some short term success but will not reach the heights of those who collaborate effectively with the right partners. This is why I propose to you that…
Freelancers Will Form Networks and Build “Fast� Companies
This is somewhat obvious with things like the original thought behind Citizen Agency (before it became the Chris and Tara consulting shop), Co-Working and the renewed enthusiasm for small startup teams, but there is something more subtle and deeper at the heart of this. Simply put, teams of people can do more together, better, than any individual can do alone. As I have banged on my drum for the last two years – in a knowledge economy, the number one driver of value is the ability of smart people from diverse backgrounds to work together.
Some of the lessons of old media will hold true for social media. This is most notably the content networks (ala PodShow, Gawker, Weblogsinc), the power of talent (ala Amanda Congdon and RocketBoom), the need to build an audience and the ability to produce in a really slick way. As we have seen with reality television, the hybrid of overly produced “barely based on reality� does not hold sway with people for long. The deep human desire for genuine connections with the heroes journey via Joseph Campbell will not tolerate gimmicks or fools for long. Genuine human drama, ’How To’ content, insightful commentary, truly funny comedy, emotionally charged entertainment, engaging conversations, factual news of the world and stories well told will rule the day.
While an individual alone may be able to make a few extra bucks via advertising and affiliate product sales, or by syndicating their content – they will get the most impact in terms of influence and dollars by joining networks. These can be small networks of a few friends working together, or can be the basis for new startups. Some may have the right formula and grow big organically, but most will not truly obtain their full value unless they are able to benefit from the scale of an even larger network.
This is similar to the difference between living in a rural countryside versus living in the city. Neither is necessarily good or bad on its own merits and- you can choose whichever one you like, but both are generally better if you belong to a network for support. Working freelance is somewhat like tilling the land on your own farm. You can make a living if you put your shoulder into it and can find a market for what you have to offer, but there are a lot more things required of you to be successful. In this analogy, working on a team is like living in a city where you have more of the basic resources required for success provided for you. This is one of the reasons I have come to believe that co-working is quite possibly a transition for many people back into companies.
The key difference being that the companies created out of it will not be companies based on command and control hierarchies, but instead will be chaordic in nature. The purpose of the organization will be clear to those within it and everyone will be a leader from time to time. However, it will still require a visionary thinker, a finance wiz and an operational expert at the helm for maximum success as Tom Peters proposes in his concept of the “Golden Leadership Triangle�. It will also be a values driven organization that may make a reasonable profit or a huge one (in line with the value created) but will most assuredly be socially responsible and focused on people.
This is exactly the sort of world envisioned by Alan Webber and Bill Taylor when they formed Fast Company. Only now, we have all the lessons of irrational exuberance, the further democratization of the means of production, the knowledge economy rather than the information economy and a more wide spread desire for change in the face of looming world wide conflict.
An Interlude – a Point Skipped (for now)
At this point in the story, I should be talking about point three, how the corporation will be forever changed by Social Media, but at word 2004 of this post, let’s leave that for another post and talk about the important societal concern we are facing. You should know I am generally not an alarmist by nature. In fact, I generally forgo confrontation in favor of conversation, but if I don’t stand for this, I stand for nothing.
For the last year I have been pursuing BrainJams, Social Media Club and supporting other similarly inspired ideas from others (like NetSquared and BarCamp) because I am an optimist who believes we can change. That was the reason I wrote The Noble Pursuit. That is the reason I was trying to get funding for Insytes. Yes, I hope to achieve a certain bit of fame and fortune too, but this is all really about me finding my purpose for living and it has little to do with either, though it may be a byproduct of the activities. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your view, none of it was completely clear to me until this past weekend in London. I suppose it only makes sense since this is where the original idea for Insytes and the situational knowledgebase from The Noble Pursuit became clear in 2002.
Recently, leaving the British Museum with Jason Hoffman I happened to mention that both my mother and father had cerebral palsy and I felt like kind of a blessed miracle child. To this, he replied something along the lines of �well you better do something big with your life then." Of course, I have always felt this since I was small, but I have not been connected with that reality fully, particularly in the way I have chosen to live my life on occasion by avoiding certain confrontations. Then on Sunday, when I was visiting Mark Adams at his country home, he asked me �Why are you really doing this? What do you hope to see happen as a result of your work today?�
Wow. A powerful question right up there with a Tim Taylor sort of reflection, which is not surprising given how sharp Mark is. What was surprising was how clear the answer was. After pausing for a few seconds, I said �well, the world is kind of at a point in time where we get to choose whether we are all in this together or we are in it alone. I hope to be a catalyst to ensure we survive as a human race instead of destroying ourselves through intolerance, greed and closed mindedness.�
Social Media Can Save the World
Social Media is the way forward and if it is spread around the world imbued with the right values, it can be the means for fixing what’s broken in the world and bringing us together instead of continuing to keeping us apart. Tom Munnecke promotes this concept through the Uplift Academy, it is a way to identify what is working in the world and ensure we do more of it by amplifying that understanding across our social networks around the world.
Unfortunately, as we know all too well, the same tools we choose to use for bringing us together as the human race are also used to keep us apart. Al Qaeda not only uses the Internet to secretly coordinate their activities using encryption technology, but also to spread their message of hate. As we use the tools to spread the message of hope, they use it to spread fear and hate of everyone who is not like them – the supposed non-believers. Of course, the conservatives in the United States are also using these and other media tools to win the battle for the hearts and minds of Americans in the ideological war.
Unfortunately, for most of society fear is still a bigger motivation than pleasure and there are many who are more easily swayed by the politics of fear. This is not to say that there is not a real threat and something to be afraid of, as there clearly is something to be aware of, and the enemies to our way of life are many which may indeed require us to take up arms in order to make the world a better place. It is simply my hope that we can all get smarter about using Social Media and work hard at organizing ourselves as Paramedia rather than paramilitaries.
Of course the most important thing to remember is that we must start with small actions and small victories. We need not inspire 100,000 people to see things this way with one blog post, we just need to reach one person to begin to make the world a better place. We need to realize that we will not affect any change unless we release our fears of failure and our dreams of grandeur and seize upon the present moment with its unique opportunity to perhaps reach just one other person with our words, our voice, our song, our art or our story.
To quote an old saying, �If not me, then who? If not now, then when?�
Clearly the time is now, we need not rely on our current systems to show us how, we need only to look within ourselves and find our personal power and apply it to our personal passions, to stand up for what we believe is right, to say it out loud through our blogs, our podcasts, our vlogs or our conversations with others. But like the powerful force of the river, we must be yielding when we see that it will not move and go around it, wearing it down with persistence over time.
The future of social media is the future of the world . The final chapter is not yet written, but this chapter in our history is nearing its end. Thankfully, it is more like a Wiki document than a dictated memo.
So what is your contribution?
The preceding article was originally published on the Social Media Club blog.
Chris Heuer is the founder of Brainjams and Social Media Club, an Organizational Affiliate of the Society for New Communications Research. Chris has been building Internet companies and helping companies leverage the Internet to improve business performance for the last decade. Chris’ first project was founding an interactive agency and local content network in 1994. Since then, Chris has been involved in the development of more than 250 websites and web applications, serving key roles in building several pure play Internet companies.
